Space Industry Cheat Sheet: The Puzzle Pieces Are Moving, But Does Anyone Have the Box?

This week in the space indus­try felt like watch­ing some­one assem­ble a thou­sand-piece puz­zle with­out the pic­ture on the box. There is a lot of activ­i­ty. Mon­ey is flow­ing. Hard­ware is mov­ing. But whether all these pieces fit togeth­er into a coher­ent nation­al strat­e­gy remains the question.

Artemis II: Humanity Returns to Lunar Space

The biggest news of the week was NASA rolling out the Artemis II rock­et to Launch Com­plex 39B at Kennedy Space Cen­ter on Jan­u­ary 17. For those keep­ing score, this is the first crewed mis­sion to lunar space since Gene Cer­nan stepped off the lunar sur­face in Decem­ber 1972. Astro­nauts Reid Wise­man, Vic­tor Glover, Christi­na Koch, and Cana­di­an astro­naut Jere­my Hansen will fly the Ori­on space­craft, which they named Integri­ty, on a 10-day flight around the Moon.

The roll­out took near­ly 12 hours as Crawler Trans­porter 2 car­ried the 11-mil­lion-pound stack along the four-mile crawler­way. Accord­ing to Space­News, NASA is tar­get­ing a launch win­dow open­ing Feb­ru­ary 6, with a wet dress rehearsal sched­uled for Feb­ru­ary 2.

Here is what makes Artemis II par­tic­u­lar­ly inter­est­ing from a tech­ni­cal per­spec­tive. The Ori­on heat shield issues from Artemis I required exten­sive analy­sis before NASA felt com­fort­able pro­ceed­ing with the crew aboard. Admin­is­tra­tor Jared Isaac­man stat­ed he sup­ports pro­ceed­ing after review­ing the agen­cy’s work and meet­ing with engi­neers. Some par­tic­i­pants in those reviews remain con­cerned, while oth­ers felt the addi­tion­al data addressed their ques­tions. NASA has stat­ed that design changes for the heat shield are planned for Artemis III.

I appre­ci­ate NASA’s trans­paren­cy on the heat shield sit­u­a­tion. Acknowl­edg­ing a tech­ni­cal chal­lenge pub­licly and explain­ing the path for­ward is exact­ly how you build trust with the Amer­i­can pub­lic. Too often, orga­ni­za­tions paint a rosy pic­ture rather than doing the hard work to explain where they are and what they are doing about it.

Golden Dome: Priorities Emerge, Questions Remain

Gen­er­al Mike Guetlein, the Gold­en Dome for Amer­i­ca (GD4A) Pro­gram Man­ag­er, gave indus­try anoth­er look at pri­or­i­ties through 2027 this past week. Accord­ing to Defense Dai­ly, the top pri­or­i­ty for 2026 is devel­op­ing the com­mand and con­trol sys­tem that serves as the “glue lay­er” con­nect­ing all the tac­ti­cal C2 sys­tems. Guetlein stat­ed they must have this deliv­ered by sum­mer and demon­strate the C2 capa­bil­i­ty to decision-makers.

For those who have been fol­low­ing the GD4A saga, this is both encour­ag­ing and con­cern­ing. In one month, the Mis­sile Defense Agency com­plet­ed anoth­er round of awards under the SHIELD IDIQ con­tract, bring­ing the total num­ber of qual­i­fied ven­dors to more than 2,400 enti­ties. The con­tract ceil­ing is $151 bil­lion over 10 years. Then Gen­er­al Guetlein has stat­ed that last year’s indus­try day should not have hap­pened, that SHIELD is just a tool and not direct­ly tied to Gold­en Dome, and that only six com­pa­nies will be used for the C2BMC work.

The time and mon­ey the indus­try spends try­ing to fig­ure out what the GD4A is astro­nom­i­cal. There is grow­ing con­cern that the indus­try will nev­er deter­mine what GD4A is doing because it will be over­clas­si­fied or pre­baked for a select few. As the Depart­ment of War con­tin­ues to mag­ni­fy the chal­lenges of the indus­try base, it might also want to be self-reflec­tive. If the Depart­ment wants to fos­ter good part­ner­ships with indus­try, it needs to take account­abil­i­ty for how it com­mu­ni­cates require­ments and expec­ta­tions. This is not crit­i­cism for crit­i­cis­m’s sake. This is about oper­a­tional out­comes. Clear guid­ance leads to bet­ter pro­pos­als, faster capa­bil­i­ty deliv­ery, and increased lethal­i­ty against advanced threats.

Rus­sia has also tak­en note of the Gold­en Dome ini­tia­tive. Deputy Chair­man of the Russ­ian Secu­ri­ty Coun­cil Dmit­ry Medvedev called it “high­ly provoca­tive” and warned it could desta­bi­lize glob­al nuclear deter­rence. Whether you agree with that assess­ment or not, the fact that adver­saries are pay­ing atten­tion sug­gests the pro­gram has strate­gic weight.

Space Development Agency: Building the Backbone

The Space Devel­op­ment Agency award­ed approx­i­mate­ly $3.5 bil­lion to Lock­heed Mar­tin, L3Harris, Northrop Grum­man, and Rock­et Lab to build 72 Track­ing Lay­er satel­lites for Tranche 3 of the Pro­lif­er­at­ed Warfight­er Space Archi­tec­ture. Accord­ing to Pay­load Space, these satel­lites will launch no ear­li­er than fis­cal year 2029 and pro­vide near-con­tin­u­ous glob­al cov­er­age for mis­sile warn­ing and tracking.

What makes this note­wor­thy is Rock­et Lab’s emer­gence as a prime in mis­sile defense satel­lites. Bet­ter known for launch ser­vices and small satel­lite man­u­fac­tur­ing, the com­pa­ny has repo­si­tioned itself as an end-to-end nation­al secu­ri­ty space tech­nol­o­gy provider. CEO Peter Beck has made no secret of Rock­et Lab’s goal to be the SDA sup­pli­er of choice.

How­ev­er, a GAO report released this week rais­es con­cerns about SDA’s sched­ule and cost trans­paren­cy. The report notes SDA is over­es­ti­mat­ing the tech­nol­o­gy readi­ness of some crit­i­cal ele­ments, lead­ing to unplanned work and sched­ule delays. More con­cern­ing, SDA’s require­ments process is not trans­par­ent to com­bat­ant com­mands, who report hav­ing insuf­fi­cient insight into how SDA defines require­ments and when capa­bil­i­ties will be delivered.

This is where the rub occurs. SDA is doing gen­uine­ly inno­v­a­tive work to rapid­ly field space capa­bil­i­ties. The spi­ral devel­op­ment approach, with new tranch­es every two years incor­po­rat­ing updat­ed tech­nol­o­gy, is exact­ly the kind of agile acqui­si­tion the Depart­ment says it wants. But if com­bat­ant com­mands do not under­stand what they are get­ting or when, and if cost esti­mates remain unre­li­able, we risk build­ing a con­stel­la­tion that does not meet warfight­er needs.

The fix is straight­for­ward. SDA should devel­op an archi­tec­ture-lev­el sched­ule that tracks how changes to indi­vid­ual pro­grams affect the over­all capa­bil­i­ty deliv­ery time­line. It should require more com­plete and fre­quent cost data from con­trac­tors. And it should col­lab­o­rate more effec­tive­ly with com­bat­ant com­mands to ensure require­ments align with oper­a­tional needs.

Other News Worth Your Attention

• SpaceX con­tin­ues to dom­i­nate nation­al secu­ri­ty launch­es. The Space Force award­ed nine mis­sions worth $739 mil­lion under the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 pro­gram, sup­port­ing both the Space Devel­op­ment Agency and the Nation­al Recon­nais­sance Office.
• The Crew 11 med­ical evac­u­a­tion from the Inter­na­tion­al Space Sta­tion made head­lines this week. NASA has not iden­ti­fied the astro­naut or the med­ical issue, but the crew safe­ly splashed down in the Pacif­ic Ocean. This was the first time NASA has con­duct­ed a med­ical evac­u­a­tion from the station.
• Con­gress effec­tive­ly killed Mars Sam­ple Return in the FY2026 appro­pri­a­tions bill. The House report does not mince words: “The agree­ment does not sup­port the exist­ing Mars Sam­ple Return pro­gram.” Those Mar­t­ian sam­ple tubes col­lect­ed by Per­se­ver­ance are wait­ing for a ride that may nev­er come. Mean­while, Chi­na’s Tian­wen 3 mis­sion is sched­uled to launch in 2028 and return sam­ples by 2031.

What It All Means

Look­ing across this week’s news, I see an indus­try in tran­si­tion. Artemis II rep­re­sents the cul­mi­na­tion of over a decade of work to return Amer­i­cans to lunar space. The Gold­en Dome rep­re­sents a strate­gic com­mit­ment to mis­sile defense that will reshape acqui­si­tion pri­or­i­ties for years to come. SDA rep­re­sents a new mod­el for rapid­ly field­ing space capa­bil­i­ties. And Mars Sam­ple Return rep­re­sents the trade­offs we make when bud­gets can­not sup­port every wor­thy mission.

The puz­zle pieces are mov­ing. Mon­ey is flow­ing. Hard­ware is rolling to launch pads. The ques­tion is whether lead­er­ship at every lev­el can artic­u­late how these pieces fit togeth­er into a coher­ent pic­ture of Amer­i­can space power.

For those of us in indus­try, the mes­sage is clear. Stay engaged. Ask ques­tions, then request clar­i­fi­ca­tion. And when the guid­ance is unclear, say so pub­licly rather than qui­et­ly absorb­ing the cost of con­fu­sion. That is how we build the part­ner­ships the Depart­ment says it wants.

Pax ab Space

Clin­ton Austin is a Senior Busi­ness Devel­op­ment Direc­tor for GDIT who cov­ers the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Space Force, and the Mis­sile Defense Agency.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the offi­cial pol­i­cy or posi­tion of Gen­er­al Dynam­ics Infor­ma­tion Technology.

 

February 1, 2026

Posted in Space.